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Salernitana vs Sorrento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Salernitana

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sorrento

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.1%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 65.4% 1.53 -15.5%

Draw 23.3% 27.4% 3.65 -9.0%

Away win 21.5% 17.9% 5.60 +12.2%

Over 2.5 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 27.8% 3.60 +11.2%

BTTS 52.5% 50.0% 2.00 +5.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.5%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.8%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salernitana1.8

Sorrento0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SALERNITANA · PPG 1.75

SORRENTO · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Salernitana (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.0%

Sorrento (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salernitana face Sorrento in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salernitana a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Sorrento 22%, so Salernitana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Salernitana and 0.8 for Sorrento (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salernitana are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.04 for Sorrento. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Salernitana vs Sorrento Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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