Crotone vs Latina Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 38 Stadio Ezio Scida· Crotone Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:00

Crotone PPG 1.89

2-5 MISS

Latina PPG 0.78

Home· +3.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Crotone face Latina in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crotone a 64% chance, the draw 26% and Latina 10%, so Crotone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Crotone and 0.5 for Latina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crotone are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.78 for Latina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 2-5.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.1%

Odds: 1.62 EV: +3.8%

Draw 25.9%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -9.3%

Away 9.9%

Odds: 5.10 EV: -49.5%

Model lean: Home

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% Odds: 3.50 -5.9%

BTTS 48.3% Odds: 1.90 -8.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Crotone

2.15

Latina

0.48

Model SuggestionHome +3.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=64.1%