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Crotone vs Latina Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Crotone

PPG 1.89 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Latina

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-13.5%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.6%1-17.4%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.0%3-15.7%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.6%4+-15.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 61.7% 1.62 +3.8%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.3%

Away win 9.9% 19.6% 5.10 -49.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.9%

BTTS 48.3% 52.6% 1.90 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 3–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crotone2.1

Latina0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CROTONE · PPG 1.89

LATINA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=64.1%

Win probability 1X2

Crotone (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +3.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.3%

Latina (A) 9.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -49.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crotone face Latina in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crotone a 64% chance, the draw 26% and Latina 10%, so Crotone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Crotone and 0.5 for Latina (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crotone are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.78 for Latina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 2-5.

Crotone vs Latina Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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