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Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Foggia

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Salernitana

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.9%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% — — —

Draw 29.7% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Foggia1.4

Salernitana1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FOGGIA · PPG 1.21

SALERNITANA · PPG 1.66

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Foggia (H) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Salernitana (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Foggia face Salernitana in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foggia a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Salernitana 25%, so Foggia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Foggia and 1.0 for Salernitana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foggia are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.66 for Salernitana. This match finished 1-1.

Foggia vs Salernitana Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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