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Team Altamura vs SS Monopoli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Team Altamura

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

SS Monopoli

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.5%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-113.1%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-18.2%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 32.3% 3.10 +38.3%

Draw 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Away win 28.2% 43.5% 2.30 -21.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.8% 2.45 +9.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 21.1% 4.75 +13.0%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 35.8% 30.3% 3.30 +18.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 38.5% 2.60 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Team Altamura1.3

SS Monopoli0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TEAM ALTAMURA · PPG 1.34

SS MONOPOLI · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Team Altamura (H) 44.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +38.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

SS Monopoli (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Team Altamura face SS Monopoli in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Team Altamura a 45% chance, the draw 27% and SS Monopoli 28%, so Team Altamura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Team Altamura and 0.9 for SS Monopoli (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Team Altamura are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.31 for SS Monopoli. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Team Altamura vs SS Monopoli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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