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Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Audace Cerignola

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cosenza

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.2% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 39.0% — — —

Away O1.5 32.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Audace Cerignola1.4

Cosenza1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDACE CERIGNOLA · PPG 1.58

COSENZA · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Audace Cerignola (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cosenza (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Audace Cerignola face Cosenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Audace Cerignola a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Cosenza 28%, so Audace Cerignola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Audace Cerignola and 1.0 for Cosenza (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Audace Cerignola are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.28 for Cosenza. This match finished 3-1.

Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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