Serie B

ITALY · 47 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 30 AUG 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 47 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

51.1%

1X2

24/47

53.2%

O/U 2.5

25/47

57.4%

BTTS

27/47

57.4%

Exact score

27/47

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

61.1%

Hit rate

11/18

1.98

Avg odds

+12.7%

ROI

+2.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=14 64.3% HIT · AVG 1.99 · +16.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -10.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.20 · +120.0% ROI

BTTS · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

86%

Hit

+48.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+43.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

75%

Hit

+40.5%

ROI

Match log

47 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 5 PICKS · 5 HIT · 0 MISS

30 AUG Mantova vs Empoli BTTS -4% 3–1 HIT 29 AUG Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia — NO PICK 1–2 —29 AUG Virtus Entella vs Cesena — NO PICK 1–2 —23 AUG Palermo vs Juve Stabia Home -12% 1–0 HIT 23 AUG Cesena vs Sampdoria BTTS -7% 1–1 HIT 22 AUG Carrarese vs Mantova BTTS -8% 1–2 HIT 22 AUG Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella Home +8% 1–0 HIT

May 2026 // 6 PICKS · 4 HIT · 2 MISS

8 MAY Cesena vs Padova BTTS -13% 3–4 HIT 8 MAY Catanzaro vs Bari Over 2.5 -12% 2–3 HIT 8 MAY Frosinone vs Mantova Over 2.5 -21% 5–0 HIT 8 MAY Avellino vs Modena BTTS +1% 1–0 MISS 8 MAY Entella vs Carrarese BTTS -13% 2–1 HIT 8 MAY Venezia vs Palermo BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS 8 MAY Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia — NO PICK 1–1 —8 MAY Reggiana vs Sampdoria — NO PICK 1–0 —