Serie B

ITALY · 40 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 8 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 40 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

52.5%

1X2

21/40

55.0%

O/U 2.5

22/40

57.5%

BTTS

23/40

60.0%

Exact score

24/40

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

60.6%

Hit rate

20/33

1.80

Avg odds

+4.0%

ROI

+1.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=15 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.94 · +5.4% ROI

BTTS · N=11 54.5% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -9.8% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.71 · +23.8% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.75 · +21.3% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

86%

Hit

+48.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

60%

Hit

+8.2%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

65%

Hit

+9.1%

ROI

Match log

40 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 5 MISS

8 MAY Entella vs Carrarese BTTS -13% 2–1 HIT 8 MAY Frosinone vs Mantova Over 2.5 -21% 5–0 HIT 8 MAY Avellino vs Modena BTTS +1% 1–0 MISS 8 MAY Catanzaro vs Bari Over 2.5 -12% 2–3 HIT 8 MAY Cesena vs Padova BTTS -13% 3–4 HIT 8 MAY Monza vs Empoli Home -15% 2–2 MISS 8 MAY Pescara vs Spezia BTTS -13% 1–1 HIT 8 MAY Reggiana vs Sampdoria — NO PICK 1–0 —8 MAY Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia — NO PICK 1–1 —8 MAY Venezia vs Palermo BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS 1 MAY Sampdoria vs Sudtirol — NO PICK 1–0 —1 MAY Spezia vs Venezia BTTS -14% 2–2 HIT 1 MAY Bari vs Entella — NO PICK 2–0 —1 MAY Carrarese vs Cesena BTTS -13% 0–0 MISS 1 MAY Empoli vs Avellino BTTS -1% 1–0 MISS