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Palermo vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Palermo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Juve Stabia

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.6%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-110.4%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 21.8% 17.2% 5.80 +15.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Away O1.5 19.5% 20.0% 5.00 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palermo1.8

Juve Stabia0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PALERMO · PPG 2.12

JUVE STABIA · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palermo (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Juve Stabia (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palermo face Juve Stabia in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palermo a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Juve Stabia 22%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Palermo and 0.8 for Juve Stabia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palermo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.17 for Juve Stabia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Palermo vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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