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Cesena vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Cesena

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sampdoria

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.9%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.0%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 40.0% 2.50 +30.3%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 23.6% 37.0% 2.70 -21.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 47.0% 40.0% 2.50 +17.5%

Away O1.5 24.8% 38.2% 2.62 -21.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesena1.6

Sampdoria0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CESENA · PPG 1.34

SAMPDORIA · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cesena (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +30.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Sampdoria (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesena face Sampdoria in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesena a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Sampdoria 24%, so Cesena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cesena and 0.9 for Sampdoria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesena are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 0.93 for Sampdoria. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Cesena vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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