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Reggiana vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Reggiana

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sampdoria

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-112.5%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.3%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 28.2% 3.55 +37.4%

Draw 30.6% 30.8% 3.25 -0.5%

Away win 30.6% 47.6% 2.10 -35.7%

Over 2.5 45.8% 44.4% 2.25 +3.0%

Over 3.5 15.1% 23.8% 4.20 -21.9%

BTTS 48.2% 51.8% 1.93 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0✓ 14.0%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reggiana1.1

Sampdoria1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REGGIANA · PPG 1.22

SAMPDORIA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Reggiana (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +37.4%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.5%

Sampdoria (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reggiana face Sampdoria in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reggiana a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Sampdoria 31%, so Reggiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Reggiana and 1.0 for Sampdoria (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reggiana are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Sampdoria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Reggiana vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions