Today / Italy - Serie B / Avellino vs Modena

Avellino vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Avellino

PPG 1.61 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Modena

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-113.4%0-28.5%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.4%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.7%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 64.1% 1.56 -53.0%

Draw 28.5% 26.3% 3.80 +5.0%

Away win 41.4% 16.7% 6.00 +148.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 18.9% 28.6% 3.50 -20.3%

BTTS 52.0% 51.3% 1.95 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.0%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–0✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avellino1.0

Modena1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AVELLINO · PPG 1.61

MODENA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.61), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Avellino (H) 30.1%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -53.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.0%

Modena (A) 41.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +148.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avellino face Modena in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avellino a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Modena 41%, so Modena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Avellino and 1.3 for Modena (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avellino are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.33 for Modena. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +148.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Avellino vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions