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Cesena vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Cesena

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Padova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.2%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-17.9%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 66.7% 1.50 -36.1%

Draw 30.1% 22.7% 4.40 +32.4%

Away win 27.3% 17.5% 5.70 +33.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 61.7% 1.62 -25.8%

Over 3.5 17.0% 38.5% 2.60 -33.5%

BTTS 50.9% 58.8% 1.70 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.9%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesena1.2

Padova1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CESENA · PPG 1.33

PADOVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cesena (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -36.1%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +32.4%

Padova (A) 27.3%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesena face Padova in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesena a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Padova 27%, so Cesena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cesena and 1.0 for Padova (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesena are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Padova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 3-4.

Cesena vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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