Cesena vs Padova Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie B Regular Season - 38 Stadio Dino Manuzzi· Cesena Friday, May 8, 2026 18:30

Cesena PPG 1.33

3-4 MISS

Padova PPG 1.00

Away· +33.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.6%

Odds: 1.50 EV: -36.1%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +32.4%

Away 27.3%

Odds: 5.70 EV: +33.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 1.62 -25.8%

Over 3.5 17.0% Odds: 2.60 -33.5%

BTTS 50.9% Odds: 1.70 -13.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cesena

1.19

Padova

0.96

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+33.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)