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Frosinone vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Frosinone

PPG 2.11 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mantova

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.5%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.3%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.5%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 62.1% 1.61 -17.9%

Draw 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.5%

Away win 22.6% 21.3% 4.70 +3.7%

Over 2.5 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 44.4% 2.25 -22.1%

BTTS 52.3% 65.4% 1.53 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone1.9

Mantova0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE · PPG 2.11

MANTOVA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -17.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.5%

Mantova (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone face Mantova in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Mantova 23%, so Frosinone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Frosinone and 0.8 for Mantova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.89 for Mantova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 5-0.

Frosinone vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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