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Mantova vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Mantova

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Empoli

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 47.6% 2.10 -1.1%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 25.4% 28.6% 3.50 -6.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 30.2% 26.3% 3.80 +14.8%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.5% 2.20 +7.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mantova1.6

Empoli1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTOVA · PPG 1.55

EMPOLI · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mantova (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Empoli (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mantova face Empoli in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mantova a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Empoli 25%, so Mantova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mantova and 1.1 for Empoli (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mantova are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.04 for Empoli. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Mantova vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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