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Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Sudtirol

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Virtus Entella

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.3%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 47.6% 2.10 +7.7%

Draw 25.9% 31.3% 3.20 -10.3%

Away win 22.8% 27.8% 3.60 -10.8%

Over 2.5 46.1% 39.2% 2.55 +17.5%

Over 3.5 27.5% 20.0% 5.00 +22.5%

BTTS 49.1% 47.6% 2.10 +3.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 40.8% 2.45 -2.0%

Away O1.5 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sudtirol1.5

Virtus Entella0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.27

VIRTUS ENTELLA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sudtirol (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +7.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.3%

Virtus Entella (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sudtirol face Virtus Entella in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sudtirol a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Virtus Entella 23%, so Sudtirol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sudtirol and 0.8 for Virtus Entella (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sudtirol are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.80 for Virtus Entella. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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