Today / Italy - Serie B / Carrarese vs Mantova

Carrarese vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Carrarese

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mantova

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.5%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.3%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.6%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 43.1% 2.32 +21.6%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 23.4% 33.6% 2.98 -18.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

BTTS 53.2% 57.8% 1.73 -8.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 43.5% 2.30 +12.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 37.0% 2.70 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carrarese1.7

Mantova0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CARRARESE · PPG 1.52

MANTOVA · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carrarese (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +21.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Mantova (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carrarese face Mantova in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carrarese a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Mantova 23%, so Carrarese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carrarese and 0.9 for Mantova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carrarese are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.07 for Mantova. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Carrarese vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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