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Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Sampdoria

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Juve Stabia

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.7%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.5%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.3%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 52.6% 1.90 -14.7%

Draw 31.7% 30.3% 3.30 +4.6%

Away win 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

Over 3.5 26.0% 22.2% 4.50 +10.2%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 25.0% 4.00 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sampdoria1.4

Juve Stabia0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMPDORIA · PPG 1.62

JUVE STABIA · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sampdoria (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.7%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +4.6%

Juve Stabia (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sampdoria face Juve Stabia in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sampdoria a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Juve Stabia 23%, so Sampdoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sampdoria and 0.9 for Juve Stabia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sampdoria are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.98 for Juve Stabia. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Sampdoria vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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