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Virtus Entella vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Virtus Entella

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Cesena

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.8%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.1%1-112.6%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.0%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 47.2% 2.12 -8.2%

Draw 31.4% 30.3% 3.30 +3.6%

Away win 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.3% 3.80 +0.2%

BTTS 47.2% 54.6% 1.83 -13.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.3% 3.10 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Virtus Entella1.4

Cesena1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIRTUS ENTELLA · PPG 1.69

CESENA · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Virtus Entella (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -8.2%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.6%

Cesena (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Virtus Entella face Cesena in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Virtus Entella a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Cesena 25%, so Virtus Entella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Virtus Entella and 1.0 for Cesena (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Virtus Entella are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.28 for Cesena. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Virtus Entella vs Cesena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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