Today / Italy - Serie B / Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia

Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Sudtirol

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Juve Stabia

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-112.7%0-26.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 66.7% 1.50 -43.6%

Draw 29.6% 24.4% 4.10 +12.8%

Away win 32.8% 16.1% 6.20 +103.4%

Over 2.5 45.8% 58.8% 1.70 -22.1%

Over 3.5 15.5% 35.7% 2.80 -34.0%

BTTS 49.3% 56.5% 1.77 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.3%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sudtirol1.1

Juve Stabia1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.17

JUVE STABIA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sudtirol (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -43.6%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.8%

Juve Stabia (A) 32.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +103.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sudtirol face Juve Stabia in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sudtirol a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Juve Stabia 33%, so Sudtirol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sudtirol and 1.0 for Juve Stabia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sudtirol are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.94 for Juve Stabia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +103.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions