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Catanzaro vs Bari Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Catanzaro

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bari

PPG 0.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.5%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.4%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 36.8% 2.72 +38.7%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -9.3%

Away win 22.6% 39.2% 2.55 -25.4%

Over 2.5 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Over 3.5 29.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

BTTS 52.3% 67.6% 1.48 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Catanzaro1.9

Bari0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CATANZARO · PPG 1.94

BARI · PPG 0.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Catanzaro (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +38.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.3%

Bari (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Catanzaro face Bari in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Catanzaro a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Bari 23%, so Catanzaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Catanzaro and 0.8 for Bari (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Catanzaro are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.61 for Bari. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Catanzaro vs Bari Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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