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Entella vs Carrarese Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Entella

PPG 1.72 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Carrarese

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.9%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.5%1-113.2%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 62.9% 1.59 -37.0%

Draw 29.9% 24.4% 4.10 +13.6%

Away win 30.5% 20.0% 5.00 +52.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 60.6% 1.65 -24.3%

Over 3.5 19.6% 37.7% 2.65 -28.8%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Entella1.2

Carrarese1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ENTELLA · PPG 1.72

CARRARESE · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.72) vs P(Home)=39.6%

Win probability 1X2

Entella (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -37.0%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +13.6%

Carrarese (A) 30.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +52.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Entella face Carrarese in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Entella a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Carrarese 31%, so Entella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Entella and 1.1 for Carrarese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Entella are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 0.83 for Carrarese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +52.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Entella vs Carrarese Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions