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Venezia vs Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Venezia

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Palermo

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.4%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.4%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 60.2% 1.66 -19.7%

Draw 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +3.8%

Away win 25.0% 21.7% 4.60 +9.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 60.6% 1.65 -23.3%

Over 3.5 22.2% 37.7% 2.65 -24.7%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0✓ 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venezia1.5

Palermo0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VENEZIA · PPG 2.67

PALERMO · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=48.4%

Win probability 1X2

Venezia (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -19.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.8%

Palermo (A) 25.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Venezia face Palermo in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venezia a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Palermo 25%, so Venezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Venezia and 0.9 for Palermo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venezia are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Palermo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Venezia vs Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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