Leagues / ITALY / Serie A Women
Serie A Women
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 24 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
45.8%
1X2
11/24
37.5%
O/U 2.5
9/24
41.7%
BTTS
10/24
45.8%
Exact score
11/24
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
20
Settled
45.0%
Hit rate
9/20
1.65
Avg odds
-32.9%
ROI
-6.6u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=9 55.6% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -5.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -66.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.28 · +28.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-56.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
16
Bets
50%
Hit
-26.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 12 PICKS · 6 HIT · 6 MISS
17 MAY Ternana W vs AC Milan W Over 2.5 -13% 1–0 MISS17 MAY Napoli W vs Sassuolo W Home -9% 1–1 MISS17 MAY Parma W vs Juventus W — NO PICK 1–3 —17 MAY Fiorentina W vs Lazio W BTTS -2% 2–1 HIT16 MAY AS Roma W vs Genoa W Home -24% 2–0 HIT16 MAY Inter Milan W vs Como W Home -24% 0–3 MISS10 MAY AC Milan W vs Parma W — NO PICK 3–1 —10 MAY Sassuolo W vs AS Roma W Away -18% 0–3 HIT10 MAY Juventus W vs Inter Milan W BTTS -14% 3–3 HIT10 MAY Lazio W vs Ternana W Over 2.5 -10% 2–0 MISS9 MAY Como W vs Napoli W BTTS -8% 0–0 MISS9 MAY Genoa W vs Fiorentina W BTTS -3% 2–3 HIT3 MAY Parma W vs Lazio W BTTS -16% 1–3 HIT3 MAY Fiorentina W vs Como W BTTS +10% 1–0 MISS2 MAY Napoli W vs Juventus W — NO PICK 2–3 —