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Fiorentina W vs Lazio W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Fiorentina W

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lazio W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.9%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.1%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 52.4% 1.91 -13.9%

Draw 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

Away win 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 57.8% 1.73 +2.2%

Over 3.5 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

BTTS 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina W1.6

Lazio W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA W · PPG 1.80

LAZIO W · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina W (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -13.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.1%

Lazio W (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina W face Lazio W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina W a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Lazio W 29%, so Fiorentina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fiorentina W and 1.4 for Lazio W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Lazio W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Fiorentina W vs Lazio W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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