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Sassuolo W vs AS Roma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Sassuolo W

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

AS Roma W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-115.7%0-213.9%0-38.2%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.2%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-01.9%2-13.3%2-23.0%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 15.4% 6.50 -8.9%

Draw 26.5% 25.0% 4.00 +3.6%

Away win 60.5% 73.5% 1.36 -17.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 22.7% 38.2% 2.62 -24.3%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.2%

A 60% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 0–2 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo W0.7

AS Roma W1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO W · PPG 0.80

AS ROMA W · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo W (H) 13.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -8.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.6%

AS Roma W (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo W face AS Roma W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo W a 13% chance, the draw 27% and AS Roma W 61%, so AS Roma W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sassuolo W and 1.8 for AS Roma W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo W are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.50 for AS Roma W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Sassuolo W vs AS Roma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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