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Lazio W vs Ternana W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Lazio W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ternana W

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-110.6%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 69.4% 1.44 -26.6%

Draw 26.4% 25.6% 3.90 +1.8%

Away win 22.6% 17.2% 5.80 +18.6%

Over 2.5 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% 36.4% 2.75 -14.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0✓ 11.7%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio W1.8

Ternana W0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO W · PPG 1.40

TERNANA W · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Lazio W (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -26.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.8%

Ternana W (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio W face Ternana W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio W a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Ternana W 23%, so Lazio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lazio W and 0.8 for Ternana W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Ternana W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Lazio W vs Ternana W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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