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Como W vs Napoli W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 10:30

Como W

PPG 1.10 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Napoli W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-112.8%0-27.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-16.9%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 38.5% 2.60 -8.5%

Draw 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

Away win 36.1% 40.8% 2.45 -11.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 50.0% 2.00 -8.4%

Over 3.5 18.9% 28.6% 3.50 -20.3%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0✓ 10.7%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Como W1.0

Napoli W1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COMO W · PPG 1.10

NAPOLI W · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.10) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Como W (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.6%

Napoli W (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Como W face Napoli W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Como W a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Napoli W 36%, so Napoli W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Como W and 1.2 for Napoli W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Como W are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.60 for Napoli W. This match finished 0-0.

Como W vs Napoli W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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