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Fiorentina W vs Como W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Fiorentina W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Como W

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.9%0-27.3%0-34.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.8%1-111.3%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-17.2%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 61.7% 1.62 -54.6%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -6.2%

Away win 44.5% 21.7% 4.60 +104.7%

Over 2.5 56.0% 51.3% 1.95 +9.2%

Over 3.5 33.6% 29.4% 3.40 +14.2%

BTTS 59.9% 54.6% 1.83 +9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina W1.3

Como W1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA W · PPG 1.67

COMO W · PPG 1.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina W (H) 28.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -54.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.2%

Como W (A) 44.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +104.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina W face Como W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina W a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Como W 45%, so Como W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fiorentina W and 1.6 for Como W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Como W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +104.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Fiorentina W vs Como W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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