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Parma W vs Juventus W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Parma W

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Juventus W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-116.9%0-210.8%0-34.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.8%1-112.6%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.7%2-14.7%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 17.2% 5.80 +24.6%

Draw 29.9% 26.3% 3.80 +8.2%

Away win 45.8% 69.4% 1.44 -34.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.8% 1.73 -20.1%

Over 3.5 14.8% 36.4% 2.75 -35.6%

BTTS 48.6% 57.1% 1.75 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 0–1 16.9%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma W0.7

Juventus W1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA W · PPG 1.10

JUVENTUS W · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.10) vs Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Parma W (H) 24.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +24.6%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +8.2%

Juventus W (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma W face Juventus W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma W a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Juventus W 46%, so Juventus W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Parma W and 1.3 for Juventus W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma W are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.60 for Juventus W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Parma W vs Juventus W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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