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Parma W vs Lazio W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:30

Parma W

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lazio W

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.0%0-26.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.8%1-113.1%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.8%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 33.3% 3.00 +0.8%

Draw 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

Away win 34.8% 48.8% 2.05 -28.7%

Over 2.5 43.0% 57.8% 1.73 -25.6%

Over 3.5 22.1% 33.3% 3.00 -33.7%

BTTS 50.7% 60.6% 1.65 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.7%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Parma W1.2

Lazio W1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PARMA W · PPG 1.22

LAZIO W · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Parma W (H) 33.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +5.9%

Lazio W (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Parma W face Lazio W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Parma W a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Lazio W 35%, so Lazio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Parma W and 1.2 for Lazio W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Parma W are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.44 for Lazio W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Parma W vs Lazio W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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