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AC Milan W vs Parma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:30

AC Milan W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Parma W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.8%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.9%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 62.5% 1.60 -20.5%

Draw 28.3% 29.0% 3.45 -1.4%

Away win 22.0% 20.8% 4.80 +3.4%

Over 2.5 36.2% 52.6% 1.90 -31.2%

Over 3.5 13.9% 29.2% 3.42 -31.5%

BTTS 47.1% 52.4% 1.91 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.1%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan W1.3

Parma W0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN W · PPG 1.50

PARMA W · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan W (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -20.5%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.4%

Parma W (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan W face Parma W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan W a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Parma W 22%, so AC Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for AC Milan W and 0.6 for Parma W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Parma W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-1.

AC Milan W vs Parma W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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