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Genoa W vs Fiorentina W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Genoa W

PPG 0.70 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fiorentina W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-113.0%0-29.7%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.9%2-15.9%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 21.7% 4.60 +15.3%

Draw 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 44.9% 61.7% 1.62 -27.3%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa W0.9

Fiorentina W1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA W · PPG 0.70

FIORENTINA W · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.70) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Genoa W (H) 27.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +15.3%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Fiorentina W (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa W face Fiorentina W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa W a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Fiorentina W 45%, so Fiorentina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Genoa W and 1.5 for Fiorentina W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa W are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.20 for Fiorentina W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Genoa W vs Fiorentina W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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