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Inter Milan W vs Como W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Inter Milan W

PPG 2.10 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Como W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.3%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.0%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 69.4% 1.44 -24.1%

Draw 25.3% 25.6% 3.90 -0.8%

Away win 21.9% 18.2% 5.50 +12.3%

Over 2.5 48.6% 63.7% 1.57 -23.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Milan W1.7

Como W0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MILAN W · PPG 2.10

COMO W · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.10) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Milan W (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.8%

Como W (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan W face Como W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan W a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Como W 22%, so Inter Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Inter Milan W and 0.8 for Como W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan W are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.50 for Como W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Inter Milan W vs Como W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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