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AS Roma W vs Genoa W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

AS Roma W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Genoa W

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-12.4%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.2%1-16.2%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.3%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-17.3%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.8%4+-19.1%4+-22.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 90.1% 1.11 -24.4%

Draw 22.7% 13.3% 7.50 +42.1%

Away win 9.2% 5.3% 19.00 +44.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Over 3.5 41.1% 50.0% 2.00 -17.8%

BTTS 49.0% 45.5% 2.20 +7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.0%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.4%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma W2.6

Genoa W0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA W · PPG 2.40

GENOA W · PPG 0.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.30) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma W (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +42.1%

Genoa W (A) 9.2%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +44.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma W face Genoa W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma W a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Genoa W 9%, so AS Roma W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for AS Roma W and 0.6 for Genoa W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.30 for Genoa W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.9%. This match finished 2-0.

AS Roma W vs Genoa W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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