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Ternana W vs AC Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Ternana W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AC Milan W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-111.8%0-29.9%0-35.5%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.9%1-111.6%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.4%2-15.6%2-24.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 22.2% 4.50 +7.2%

Draw 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Away win 47.6% 61.7% 1.62 -22.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

BTTS 52.0% 59.9% 1.67 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.0%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ternana W1.0

AC Milan W1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TERNANA W · PPG 1.00

AC MILAN W · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Ternana W (H) 24.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +7.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

AC Milan W (A) 47.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ternana W face AC Milan W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ternana W a 25% chance, the draw 28% and AC Milan W 48%, so AC Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ternana W and 1.7 for AC Milan W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ternana W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for AC Milan W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Ternana W vs AC Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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