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Napoli W vs Sassuolo W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Napoli W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sassuolo W

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.2%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.6%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Draw 25.8% 29.0% 3.45 -6.6%

Away win 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 22.3% 33.3% 3.00 -19.9%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napoli W1.6

Sassuolo W0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPOLI W · PPG 1.40

SASSUOLO W · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

Napoli W (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.6%

Sassuolo W (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napoli W face Sassuolo W in Italy - Serie A Women on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napoli W a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Sassuolo W 22%, so Napoli W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Napoli W and 0.8 for Sassuolo W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napoli W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.90 for Sassuolo W. This match finished 1-1.

Napoli W vs Sassuolo W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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