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Bali Utd vs Bhayangkara S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 08:30

Bali Utd

PPG 1.31 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 48.8% 2.05 -3.0%

Draw 26.2% 27.4% 3.65 -2.6%

Away win 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 30.4% 40.0% 2.50 -24.0%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bali Utd1.6

Bhayangkara S.1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BALI UTD · PPG 1.31

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Bali Utd (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -3.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.6%

Bhayangkara S. (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bali Utd face Bhayangkara S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bali Utd a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Bhayangkara S. 27%, so Bali Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bali Utd and 1.2 for Bhayangkara S. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bali Utd are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Bhayangkara S.. This match finished 4-1.

Bali Utd vs Bhayangkara S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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