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Malut United vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Malut United

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Persita

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.7%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 64.5% 1.55 -21.1%

Draw 25.1% 25.0% 4.00 +0.2%

Away win 24.0% 20.8% 4.80 +9.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 30.2% 42.0% 2.38 -28.1%

BTTS 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malut United1.7

Persita1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MALUT UNITED · PPG 1.69

PERSITA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Malut United (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -21.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.2%

Persita (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malut United face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malut United a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Persita 24%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Malut United and 1.1 for Persita (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malut United are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.13 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Malut United vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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