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Persib vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:00

Persib

PPG 2.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Persijap

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-15.0%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.0%1-19.0%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.3%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.8%3-14.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 85.5% 1.17 -27.7%

Draw 23.8% 17.4% 5.75 +22.1%

Away win 14.4% 7.1% 14.00 +61.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 69.0% 1.45 -32.6%

Over 3.5 20.1% 46.5% 2.15 -34.1%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 2–0 16.3%

#3 0–0✓ 10.0%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persib1.8

Persijap0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIB · PPG 2.88

PERSIJAP · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.88) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

Persib (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -27.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +22.1%

Persijap (A) 14.4%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +61.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persib face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persib a 62% chance, the draw 24% and Persijap 14%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Persib and 0.5 for Persijap (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persib are averaging 2.88 points per game versus 0.81 for Persijap. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Persib vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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