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Persebaya S. vs Persik Kediri Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:00

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Persik Kediri

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.5%1-19.6%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 61.0% 1.64 -12.8%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 34.8% 40.0% 2.50 -13.0%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persebaya S.2.1

Persik Kediri0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.75

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Persebaya S. (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -12.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Persik Kediri (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persebaya S. face Persik Kediri in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persebaya S. a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Persik Kediri 22%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Persebaya S. and 0.9 for Persik Kediri (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persebaya S. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.63 for Persik Kediri. This match finished 5-0.

Persebaya S. vs Persik Kediri Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions