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Persija vs Semen Padang Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:00

Persija

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Semen Padang

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 99.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-16.7%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.5%2-18.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.4%3-16.5%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-16.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 99.0% 1.01 -31.2%

Draw 22.7% 9.4% 10.60 +84.4%

Away win 9.2% 1.5% 67.00 +309.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 82.0% 1.22 -27.9%

Over 3.5 33.7% 78.1% 1.28 -56.9%

BTTS 48.6% 40.8% 2.45 +19.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 68% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.5%

#2 3–0✓ 12.4%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persija2.4

Semen Padang0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIJA · PPG 2.13

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.13), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Persija (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.01 · IMPLIED 99.0% EV -31.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 10.60 · IMPLIED 9.4% EV +84.4%

Semen Padang (A) 9.2%

ODDS 67.00 · IMPLIED 1.5% EV +309.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persija face Semen Padang in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persija a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Semen Padang 9%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Persija and 0.5 for Semen Padang (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persija are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.50 for Semen Padang. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +309.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Persija vs Semen Padang Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions