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Bali Utd vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 12:00

Bali Utd

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Borneo

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.8%0-27.5%0-34.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 25.3% 3.95 +10.2%

Draw 26.2% 25.3% 3.95 +2.1%

Away win 44.2% 59.5% 1.68 -25.7%

Over 2.5 59.4% 67.6% 1.48 -12.1%

Over 3.5 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

BTTS 58.6% 67.6% 1.48 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.6%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bali Utd1.3

Borneo1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BALI UTD · PPG 1.40

BORNEO · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Bali Utd (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +10.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.1%

Borneo (A) 44.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bali Utd face Borneo in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bali Utd a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Borneo 44%, so Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bali Utd and 1.7 for Borneo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bali Utd are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.93 for Borneo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Bali Utd vs Borneo Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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