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PSBS Biak N. vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:00

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arema

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-19.6%0-29.7%0-36.6%0-4+5.3%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-210.0%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.5%2-15.0%2-25.1%2-33.4%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 53.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.4% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 53% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSBS Biak N.1.0

Arema2.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.75

AREMA · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

PSBS Biak N. (H) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arema (A) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PSBS Biak N. face Arema in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSBS Biak N. a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Arema 53%, so Arema are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for PSBS Biak N. and 2.0 for Arema (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSBS Biak N. are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.19 for Arema. This match finished 2-5.

PSBS Biak N. vs Arema Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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