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Bhayangkara S. vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 12:00

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Madura Utd

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.3%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.1%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 44.4% 2.25 +16.3%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 23.2% 35.1% 2.85 -20.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

BTTS 52.4% 59.9% 1.67 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bhayangkara S.1.8

Madura Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 2.00

MADURA UTD · PPG 1.07

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Bhayangkara S. (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Madura Utd (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara S. face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara S. a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Madura Utd 23%, so Bhayangkara S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bhayangkara S. and 1.0 for Madura Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara S. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.07 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Bhayangkara S. vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions