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Indonesia - Liga 1
Regular Season - 32
Sumpah Pemuda· Bandar Lampung
Monday, May 11, 2026
12:00
Bhayangkara S.
PPG 2.00
3-1
MISS
Madura Utd
PPG 1.07
Home· +16.3%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
51.7%
Odds: 2.25
EV: +16.3%
Draw
25.1%
Odds: 3.30
EV: -10.3%
Away
23.2%
Odds: 2.85
EV: -20.3%
Model lean:
BTTS
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
52.3%
Odds: 1.85
-3.2%
Over 3.5
28.9%
Odds: 3.20
-4.5%
BTTS
52.4%
Odds: 1.67
-12.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
2-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
2-1
✘
5th
0-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Bhayangkara S.
1.76
Madura Utd
0.96
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-12.5%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 51 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
57%
O2.5/Under
53%
BTTS/No
49%
Score Hit
43%
ROI
-7.4%
Bet Hit
46%
(11 bets)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.7%