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Persita vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:30

Persita

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Persijap

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 39.2% — a clear edge.

+28.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-18.1%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-111.7%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.0%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 39.2% 2.55 +28.5%

Draw 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -6.8%

Away win 22.3% 39.2% 2.55 -25.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Over 3.5 16.3% 29.0% 3.45 -26.3%

BTTS 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persita1.4

Persijap0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSITA · PPG 1.73

PERSIJAP · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Persita (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +28.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.8%

Persijap (A) 22.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persita face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persita a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Persijap 22%, so Persita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Persita and 0.7 for Persijap (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persita are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.67 for Persijap. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Persita vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions