Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / Semen Padang vs Persebaya S.

Semen Padang vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 08:30

Semen Padang

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-115.8%0-212.3%0-36.4%0-4+3.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-02.7%2-14.2%2-23.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% 12.1% 8.25 +19.2%

Draw 27.7% 20.8% 4.80 +19.8%

Away win 56.2% 76.9% 1.30 -26.9%

Over 2.5 46.1% 64.5% 1.55 -28.5%

Over 3.5 19.8% 42.0% 2.38 -31.7%

BTTS 48.1% 54.6% 1.83 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.1%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 0–2 12.3%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Semen Padang0.7

Persebaya S.1.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.75

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Semen Padang (H) 16.0%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV +19.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +19.8%

Persebaya S. (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Semen Padang face Persebaya S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Semen Padang a 16% chance, the draw 28% and Persebaya S. 56%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Semen Padang and 1.6 for Persebaya S. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Semen Padang are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Persebaya S.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 0-7.

Semen Padang vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions