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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Madura Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.8%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-112.1%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 46.5% 2.15 +9.2%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 23.9% 33.9% 2.95 -17.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Over 3.5 24.2% 33.9% 2.95 -17.2%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSIM Yogyakarta1.5

Madura Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.38

MADURA UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

PSIM Yogyakarta (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +9.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Madura Utd (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSIM Yogyakarta face Madura Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSIM Yogyakarta a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Madura Utd 24%, so PSIM Yogyakarta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.0 for Madura Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSIM Yogyakarta are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Madura Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 2-1.

PSIM Yogyakarta vs Madura Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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