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Persis Solo vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Persis Solo

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.8%0-29.1%0-34.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 36.4% 2.75 -13.5%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 45.1% 44.4% 2.25 +1.5%

Over 2.5 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 36.4% 2.75 -17.8%

BTTS 51.8% 64.5% 1.55 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.8%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persis Solo1.0

Dewa Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIS SOLO · PPG 1.06

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Persis Solo (H) 28.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Dewa Utd (A) 45.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persis Solo face Dewa Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persis Solo a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Dewa Utd 45%, so Dewa Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Persis Solo and 1.5 for Dewa Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persis Solo are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.50 for Dewa Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Persis Solo vs Dewa Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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