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Persik Kediri vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:30

Persik Kediri

PPG 1.81 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Persija

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-111.0%0-29.4%0-35.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.5%2-15.9%2-25.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -5.8%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 47.1% 54.1% 1.85 -12.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.6%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persik Kediri1.0

Persija1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIK KEDIRI · PPG 1.81

PERSIJA · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.94)

Win probability 1X2

Persik Kediri (H) 25.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Persija (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persik Kediri face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persik Kediri a 26% chance, the draw 27% and Persija 47%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Persik Kediri and 1.7 for Persija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persik Kediri are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.94 for Persija. This match finished 1-3.

Persik Kediri vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions