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Bhayangkara S. vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 09:00

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 2.06 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PSBS Biak N.

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=64.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.8%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-110.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 46.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 3–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bhayangkara S.2.6

PSBS Biak N.0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 2.06

PSBS BIAK N. · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=64.1%

Win probability 1X2

Bhayangkara S. (H) 64.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSBS Biak N. (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bhayangkara S. face PSBS Biak N. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bhayangkara S. a 64% chance, the draw 21% and PSBS Biak N. 15%, so Bhayangkara S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Bhayangkara S. and 0.9 for PSBS Biak N. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bhayangkara S. are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.38 for PSBS Biak N.. This match finished 7-0.

Bhayangkara S. vs PSBS Biak N. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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