Leagues / ICELAND / Úrvalsdeild
Úrvalsdeild
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 62 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.6%
1X2
32/62
62.9%
O/U 2.5
39/62
67.7%
BTTS
42/62
29.0%
Exact score
18/62
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
12
Settled
66.7%
Hit rate
8/12
1.38
Avg odds
-8.1%
ROI
-1.0u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.29 · -35.0% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.28 · +28.0% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.61 · +61.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -32.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.55 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-32.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
75%
Hit
-7.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
67%
Hit
-5.7%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+4.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS
1 SEPT KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik Over 2.5 -0% 1–1 MISSAugust 2026 // 14 PICKS · 10 HIT · 4 MISS
31 AUG Breidablik vs Stjarnan HO1.5 0–2 MISS30 AUG Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Over 2.5 -7% 2–2 HIT30 AUG FH hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik BTTS -27% 2–1 HIT30 AUG Valur Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Over 2.5 -15% 2–2 HIT29 AUG IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri Over 2.5 -8% 0–1 MISS24 AUG Breidablik vs Fram Reykjavik BTTS -11% 3–4 HIT23 AUG Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri HO1.5 4–2 HIT23 AUG Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Over 2.5 -5% 1–0 MISS23 AUG KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Over 2.5 -13% 3–5 HIT23 AUG IA Akranes vs FH hafnarfjordur Over 2.5 -15% 1–1 MISS23 AUG Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik HO1.5 2–0 HIT17 AUG Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Over 2.5 -18% 4–4 HIT17 AUG Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan HO1.5 3–1 HIT16 AUG KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik Over 2.5 -11% 3–3 HIT