Leagues / ICELAND / Úrvalsdeild
Úrvalsdeild
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 27 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
66.7%
1X2
18/27
70.4%
O/U 2.5
19/27
74.1%
BTTS
20/27
33.3%
Exact score
9/27
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
27
Settled
70.4%
Hit rate
19/27
1.32
Avg odds
-7.2%
ROI
-1.9u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=19 57.9% HIT · AVG 1.30 · -25.2% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=4 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.31 · +31.5% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.61 · +61.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.18 · +18.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+30.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
7
Bets
86%
Hit
+4.7%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
71%
Hit
-4.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
12
Bets
58%
Hit
-18.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 4 PICKS · 4 HIT · 0 MISS
4 JUL IA Akranes vs Breidablik Over 2.5 -7% 1–2 HIT3 JUL Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Over 2.5 -8% 2–2 HIT2 JUL Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik AO1.5 3–3 HIT2 JUL Vikingur R. vs KA Akureyri HO1.5 3–2 HITJune 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 4 MISS
29 JUN IA Akranes vs Fram Over 2.5 -5% 0–2 —28 JUN Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri Over 2.5 -6% 3–1 HIT28 JUN Thor Akureyri vs Valur AO1.5 2–4 HIT28 JUN Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik Over 2.5 -5% 3–2 HIT25 JUN Breidablik vs Vikingur R. Over 2.5 -2% 1–4 HIT22 JUN KR Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Over 2.5 +4% 5–3 HIT21 JUN Breidablik vs KA Akureyri Over 2.5 +3% 3–1 HIT21 JUN Valur vs Keflavik Over 2.5 -8% 1–1 MISS21 JUN Hafnarfjordur vs Thor Akureyri Over 2.5 -12% 1–1 MISS16 JUN Vikingur R. vs KR Reykjavik Over 2.5 +0% 2–0 MISS16 JUN IA Akranes vs Valur Over 2.5 -11% 1–0 MISS